Turkey: Industrial Production recovery continues in July

Industrial Production was down 9.1% yoy in July, up from -10.3% in June and the -24% yoy trough posted in February 2009. The sequential recovery was broad-based, evident in all sectors of the economy, but it was particularly strong in such export-oriented sectors as textiles, basic metals, motor vehicles, and machinery production. According to Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, 2nd quarter GDP numbers, which will be released September 10, may show a growth of +2% qoq. According to GS analyst, the Turkish GDP can be expected to decline by –7% for 2009 with a strong +4.5% rebound in 2010.

With the strong Industrial Production numbers, Turkey is recovering from the deep recession of 2008-2009. The recovery owes to some extent to the policy stimulus provided both domestically and in Turkey’s leading export markets. But as stimuli fade, there is a risk that recovery could lose some momentum.   

Source: Goldman Sachs Global ECS European Research


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